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See the method in use
The expected value calculator shows its formula, takes your numbers and runs in your browser.
What a calculator does
Each calculator on this site takes the numbers you type in, puts them through a formula, and shows the result. The formula is written on the page or in the guide that goes with it. Nothing is estimated from a hidden model.
The calculation runs in your browser. The numbers you enter are not sent to us or to anyone else. For example, the expected value calculator uses:
A calculator gives you the result of a formula for the numbers you entered. If the inputs are wrong, the output is wrong. It does not know your broker's rules, your costs or what the market will do next.
Made-up examples and calculated numbers
Every example number on this site is one of two kinds, and the page says which.
- Made-up example. A round number chosen to show how a formula works, such as a $1,000 account. It is labelled "a made-up example". It is not from a real account, a real bot or a real broker.
- Calculated by us. A result we worked out exactly, and checked, on a stated date. It is labelled with the date, for example "calculated by us on 27 Oct 2026, exact". If it is an approximation, the page says "approximation".
If a rule differs between brokers or exchanges, such as margin call levels, we say it differs and tell you to check yours. We do not state how any named product behaves.
What a backtest figure must show before we publish one
A backtest replays a strategy over past prices. It is easy to make one look good and hard to make one honest. We have not published any backtest yet. When we do, the page will show all of the following, and if any item is missing we will not publish the figure.
- Data source and dates. Where the prices came from and the exact start and end dates.
- Costs and spread included. Spread, commission, swap or funding, and slippage, with the values used.
- A build period and a later test period. Any tuning is done on the first period. The result we report comes from the later period, which the tuning never saw.
- Settings fixed before the test period. The rules and parameters are written down before the later period is run, not adjusted after looking at it.
- The worst drawdown and the number of trades. A result from a handful of trades is shown as what it is. The deepest fall from a peak is shown next to any profit figure.
- The sentence that results are hypothetical. A backtest did not trade real money, and it is not a forecast.
The guides on overfitting, look-ahead bias and forward testing explain why each of these items matters.
How we handle errors
We check our arithmetic in code before it goes on a page, and each worked example is reproduced by a test in the calculator it belongs to. We still can make mistakes. When we find one, we will correct the page and put a dated correction note at the top of it, so the change is visible and not quietly overwritten. A contact route for reporting errors will open with the contact form; see the contact page.
What a page may claim and what it may not
| A page may claim | A page may not claim |
|---|---|
| What a formula is and how to use it, with the arithmetic shown | That a number will happen in the future |
| That an example is made-up, or that a number was calculated on a stated date | That an example is typical of "most traders" or "most bots" |
| How a type of bot works and how it can fail | That a bot, setting or product will make money |
| A backtest result that lists its data, dates, costs, test period, worst drawdown and trade count | A performance figure without costs, or without a later test period |
| That a rule varies by broker, and that you must check yours | How a named broker, exchange or product behaves, unless the fact is stable and general |
| That results are hypothetical | That a result is certain, safe or easy |
What we will never publish
- Trading signals, or any instruction to buy or sell something.
- Profit promises, in any wording.
- Performance figures that leave out costs.
- Results chosen after the fact because they looked best.
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FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
Do the calculators send my numbers anywhere?
No. The calculation runs in your browser and the numbers you type are not sent to us or to anyone else.
How do I tell a made-up example from a calculated number?
The page labels it. Made-up examples say "a made-up example". Numbers we worked out say "calculated by us" with the date, and say whether they are exact or an approximation.
Has the site published any backtests?
No. None are published now. When we publish one it will list its data source and dates, its costs, its build and test periods, its worst drawdown and its number of trades, and it will say that results are hypothetical.
What happens if a figure on a page is wrong?
We will correct the page and put a dated correction note at the top of it. Report an error through the contact form.
Will you ever publish signals or profit promises?
No. The site does not publish trading signals, profit promises or performance figures without costs.
Are the numbers on this page real?
Example numbers are made up to show how the maths works, and the page says so. A figure only counts as exact when the page says it was calculated on a stated date. Nothing you enter in a calculator leaves your browser.
Can I use this to decide whether to run a bot?
It can show whether a bot's numbers hold together and how much an account can lose. It cannot say what the market will do, and it is not advice. Use it to ask better questions, then read the terms of your own broker or exchange.
Is this financial advice?
No. The site is general education. It does not consider your situation and it does not recommend any trade, bot or product.
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